When Does an Hour of Work Become the Most Expensive?

The fourth quarter in logistics acts as a kind of “crash test” for many companies. It often becomes a battle for survival due to the surge in orders, which irregularly strain both transport and employees. Considering these factors, companies standing at a crossroads must choose one path: either employees work overtime, or the company increases its workforce. This text explains when each path truly pays off—and how not to fall into the trap of the seemingly “cheaper” hour.

Market in Numbers: Vacancies, Wages, Absences

The second quarter of 2025 brought little change in the Netherlands—there were still 101 open vacancies for every 100 unemployed people, creating cost pressure and limiting workforce availability. This means that permanent teams are insufficient during peaks, so overtime becomes the default safeguard—with the risk of higher costs and worker fatigue.  

At the same time, wages are rising faster than inflation. In the first quarter of 2025, negotiated wages were 5.5% higher year-on-year, and after inflation adjustment, real growth stood at 1.8%. Every additional overtime hour calculated under CAO conditions therefore became more expensive in the final balance. 

Another factor is employee availability in schedules. In the first quarter of 2025, sick leave was 5.8% higher than a year earlier. For companies, this means greater unpredictability in attendance and a higher risk of staff “gaps” at critical moments—especially if the fourth quarter is based on extra hours from the same team.

It’s also important to remember the legal framework for working hours. The Arbeidstijdenwet defines maximum working and rest times, while details may depend on the relevant CAO (collective labor agreement between unions and employers). For temporary workers, CAO rules guarantee equal pay to permanent employees performing the same jobs at the same employer. Planning the fourth quarter beyond limits—or filling gaps only with overtime while ignoring breaks and night work— can result in legal violations. 

Hidden Costs of Overtime

The first risk is the accumulation of final costs. The 5.5% y/y wage increase and the real growth of 1.8% mean that the “last” hours in the schedule—the first to be cut in a budget model—become the most expensive. Overtime is convenient, but this is where the cost increases due to the new wage base and compensatory rules written into CAO.

With 101 vacancies per 100 unemployed, the labor market remains tight. In practice, this means that every absence in the fourth quarter disrupts shift continuity, as there is no reserve pool to draw from without breaching working time limits for others. Adding more hours leads to higher fatigue and the risk of quality errors and accidents.

One must not forget the Arbeidstijdenwet. It specifies weekly limits, long-term averages, and minimum breaks. On top of that come night work rules and possible CAO exceptions. In logistics, violations are often not deliberate but the result of a cascade of small decisions: shifting breaks, combining orders, or extended night unloading. In Q4, these factors pile up. From a legal risk perspective, it is safer to plan a pool of flexible basic hours than to later explain chains of overtime exceeding allowed averages. 

The fourth quarter is not only settled in December. A tired crew, unused vacation, claims for time off in exchange for overtime, and post-season turnover generate costs after this intense period, which are easy to miss in spreadsheets. These include absence costs, slower onboarding of new hires, and lower productivity in January–February. In an environment of constant wage pressure and persistently high vacancies, such costs only increase.

How to Gain in the Final Quarter?

One of the best solutions is to shift flexibility from overtime to basic hours. Instead of asking “who can stay longer,” it’s better to ask “who can join earlier on a regular shift.” A pool of candidates and micro-shifts reduces the final cost of each additional hour.

Another solution is scheduling in a way that protects people’s health, not just the number of hours. Since sick leave reached 5.8% in Q1 2025, it is wiser to plan task rotation, shorter night shifts, and regular breaks. This way, employees are less likely to drop out during the most critical moments. Lower intensity means more stable order fulfillment and fewer last-minute emergencies.

It is also worth preparing scenarios for the peak season. Companies that limit regular overtime in July–September and design three staffing variants (cautious, standard, and intensive) have greater control over costs. Each variant specifies the number of temporary workers, assigned tasks, and a ready plan for sudden order increases. Then Q4 becomes a series of planned decisions, not a constant fight against crisis.

Companies should also rethink how they measure efficiency. Instead of calculating only the cost per labor hour, it is better to calculate the cost of the entire process—for example, order fulfillment. Overtime often looks cheaper “on paper,” but in practice costs rise due to errors, complaints, or downtime. Flexible staffing maintains work quality and reduces risks.

What to Do Before the Fourth Quarter Peak?

In Q4 2025, the Dutch labor market will remain tight, and every additional working hour and absence will cost more than in the previous year. Overtime offers a quick solution, but it is often the most expensive option. A better approach is flexible staffing—planned in advance, legally compliant, and adapted to real needs.

If you want to prepare different staffing variants for your supply chain and reduce reliance on overtime, it is worth consulting Intraservis. Together, we will find the best solution for your company.